02543nas a2200277 4500008004100000022001300041245018600054210006900240260001200309300001400321490000800335520142800343653002701771653002701798653001801825653003601843100001901879700002001898700002201918700002101940700002401961700001301985700001501998700001902013856023302032 2018 eng d a0306261900aTranslating climate change and heating system electrification impacts on building energy use to future greenhouse gas emissions and electric grid capacity requirements in California0 aTranslating climate change and heating system electrification im c09/2018 a522 - 5340 v2253 a
Climate change and increased electrification of space and water heating in buildings can significantly affect future electricity demand and hourly demand profiles, which has implications for electric grid greenhouse gas emissions and capacity requirements. We use EnergyPlus to quantify building energy demand under historical and under several climate change projections of 32 kinds of building prototypes in 16 different climate zones of California and imposed these impacts on a year 2050 electric grid configuration by simulation in the Holistic Grid Resource Integration and Deployment (HIGRID) model. We find that climate change only prompted modest increases in grid resource capacity and negligible difference in greenhouse gas emissions since the additional electric load generally occurred during times with available renewable generation. Heating electrification, however, prompted a 30–40% reduction in greenhouse gas emissions but required significant grid resource capacity increases, due to the higher magnitude of load increases and lack of readily available renewable generation during the times when electrified heating loads occurred. Overall, this study translates climate change and electrification impacts to system-wide endpoint impacts on future electric grid configurations and highlights the complexities associated with translating building-level impacts to electric system-wide impacts.
10aBuilding Energy Demand10aClimate Change Impacts10aelectric grid10aHeating Electrification Effects1 aTarroja, Brian1 aChiang, Felicia1 aAghaKouchak, Amir1 aSamuelsen, Scott1 aRaghavan, Shuba, V.1 aWei, Max1 aSun, Kaiyu1 aHong, Tianzhen uhttps://linkinghub.elsevier.com/retrieve/pii/S0306261918306962https://api.elsevier.com/content/article/PII:S0306261918306962?httpAccept=text/xmlhttps://api.elsevier.com/content/article/PII:S0306261918306962?httpAccept=text/plain