@article {31987, title = {Assessing the Potential to Reduce U.S. Building CO2 Emissions 80\% by 2050}, journal = {Joule}, year = {2019}, month = {08/2019}, abstract = {

Buildings are responsible for 36\% of CO2 emissions in the United States and will thus be integral to climate change mitigation; yet, no studies have comprehensively assessed the potential long-term CO2 emissions reductions from the U.S. buildings sector against national goals in a way that can be regularly updated in the future. We use Scout, a reproducible and granular model of U.S. building energy use, to investigate the potential for the U.S. buildings sector to reduce CO2 emissions 80\% by 2050, consistent with the U.S. Mid-Century Strategy. We find that a combination of aggressive efficiency measures, electrification, and high renewable energy penetration can reduce CO2 emissions by 72\%{\textendash}78\% relative to 2005 levels, just short of the target. Results are sufficiently disaggregated by technology and end use to inform targeted building energy policy approaches and establish a foundation for continual reassessment of technology development pathways that drive significant long-term emissions reductions.

}, keywords = {Building energy efficiency, decarbonization, electrification, emissions, energy models, energy policy analysis, national climate goals, pathways building stock}, doi = {10.1016/j.joule.2019.07.013}, author = {Jared Langevin and Chioke B. Harris and Janet L. Reyna} }